The Mansurov effect: Statistical significance and the role of autocorrelation

The Mansurov effect is related to the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and its ability modulate global electric circuit, which further hypothesized impact polar troposphere through cloud generation processes. We investigate connection between IMF B y -component surface pressure by using daily ERA5 reanalysis for geopotential height since 1980. Previous studies produce a 27-day cyclic response during solar cycle 23 appears be significant according conventional statistical tests. However, we show here that when tests appropriate strongly autocorrelated variables are applied, there fairly high probability of obtaining associated correlation merely chance. Our results also data from three other cycles similar responses as 23, but with seemingly random offset in respect timing signal. By generating normally distributed noise different levels temporal autocorrelation real -time series forcing, methods applied support hypothesis up now highly susceptible chance patterns always arise artifacts methods. potential non-stationary behavior makes it difficult achieve solid significance on decadal time scales. suggest more research on, e.g., seasonal dependence understand better effects atmosphere.